In recent discussions surrounding critical thinking, there appears to be a common misconception: many believe that this skill is primarily about asking numerous questions. While inquisitiveness is undoubtedly a component of critical thinking, there is a deeper, more intricate value that it brings to individuals and organizations alike.
To visualize this concept effectively, imagine a 4×4 matrix. On the x-axis, we have “Questions Asked,” and on the y-axis, “Subject Matter Expertise.” This matrix isn’t just a tool; it’s a revelation of how true innovation emerges.
The Interplay Between Knowledge and Inquiry
At the heart of critical thinking lies the balance between knowledge (subject matter expertise) and the questioning process. It’s a synergistic relationship where each element enhances the other. Here’s why both axes of the matrix are crucial:
Subject Matter Expertise: This axis represents the depth of knowledge and understanding one has in a particular area. Expertise isn’t just about having information; it’s about understanding the context, nuances, and interfaces of that information with other domains. High levels of expertise enable one to identify gaps in knowledge, foresee potential problems, and propose innovative solutions.
Questions Asked: The art of inquiry is not about the quantity of questions but their quality. Effective questions challenge existing assumptions, probe for deeper understanding, and open up avenues for new ideas and solutions. They are driven by curiosity and the desire to improve and refine concepts and processes.
Expanded Insight into the Quadrants of Innovation
The 4×4 matrix depicts four distinct scenarios, each illustrating a unique stage in the process of innovation and critical thinking:
Low Expertise, Few Questions — “Dumb Babies”: This quadrant represents a stage of ignorance not out of inability but primarily from a lack of initiative to question or learn. Like infants who are unaware of the vastness of knowledge available, it is characterized by minimal knowledge and equally minimal curiosity.
Low Expertise, Many Questions — “Growing and Learning Babies”: Despite the lack of deep expertise, the frequent questioning drives learning and gradual improvement. This stage is dynamic, marked by an eagerness to understand more, critical for development.
High Expertise, Few Questions — “Stagnation in Bureaucracy”: Entities here possess rich knowledge but exhibit reluctance or lack of incentive to question existing processes. This leads to complacency where existing knowledge is underutilized, stifling potential innovations.
High Expertise, Many Questions — “Unlocking True Value and Innovation”: This ideal state represents the pinnacle of critical thinking, where extensive knowledge meets a high level of inquiry. It’s a vibrant, innovative environment where expertise is continuously challenged and refined.
Cultivating a Culture of Effective Critical Thinking
To nurture this ideal blend of expertise and inquiry, organizations and individuals can adopt several strategies:
Encourage Lifelong Learning: Continual education and exposure to new ideas enhance subject matter expertise. This can be facilitated through training programs, workshops, and self-directed learning.
Foster an Environment of Curiosity: Organizations should promote a culture where asking questions is encouraged and valued. This involves not just permitting, but actively supporting inquiry and exploration.
Integrate Diverse Perspectives: Innovation thrives on diversity. Bringing together people with different expertise and viewpoints can lead to more dynamic discussions and more comprehensive questioning.
Practice Reflective Thinking: Encourage individuals to reflect on their questions and the responses they elicit. Reflection helps refine the questioning process, making it more targeted and effective.
In conclusion, critical thinking goes beyond merely asking questions; it is a sophisticated skill that requires a deep understanding of subject matter combined with a strategic approach to inquiry. By fostering both these elements, we can unlock true innovation and deliver substantial value in any professional or personal context.
In order to know if a company is worth your investment, you need to research about a few critical aspects of the company. You need to have confidence on the current Management, previous financial performance, current stock trend to understand the sentiment of the market and an outlook into the future.
My analysis will be focused on these 4 broad categories after which I will make a conclusion on the action an investor should take; that is, if the stock is a buy, sell, wait or drop.
Buy – you should buy stock in this company
Sell – if you currently hold stock, sell it
Wait – wait and watch. If you have stock, keep hold on it, and if you do not have any stock then keep this on your watch list
Drop – The stock is not worth your investment
About The Company
Bajaj Finance Ltd is one of the 37 companies owned by the Conglomerate Bajaj Group which was founded by Jamnalal Bajaj in Mumbai.
Bajaj Group entered the Banking industry in or around 2010. In 2007 the board of Directors of Bajaj Auto Ltd announced the approval of the De-merger of Bajaj Auto Ltd. This was done to strategically align with future growth opportunities and to allow different management teams to focus on their respective core businesses. This De-merger resulted in the creation of Bajaj Holdings and Investment Ltd (BHIL) and Bajaj Finserv Ltd (BFL) with the already existing Bajaj Auto Ltd (BAL).
While BHIL focuses on investments and new business opportunities, BFL will focus on wind energy generation, insurance and consumer finance. Bajaj Auto continues to keep the Auto business at the core of its business model.
This de-merger of Bajaj Auto Ltd has allowed the different Management teams of the newly formed subsidiaries to mitigate the risk of poorly managed businesses due to lost focus on the core business.
The shares of BAL were split between BAL, BHIL and BFL.
BHIL – 56.5%
BAL – 22.1%
BFSL – 21.4%
Total – 100.0%
The above table indicates the proportion in which your original cost of acquisition of Bajaj Auto shares will be apportioned to the new shares.
Manufacturing Undertakings include the two and three wheeler manufacturing. while the Strategic Bisiness Understaking comprising the generation of wind-energy using wind-farms, the insurance business conducted through its joint ventures Bajaj Allianz Life Insurance Company Ltd and Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Company Ltd, financial products distribution business conducted through Bajaj Allianz Financial Distributors Ltd and interests in retail / consumer finance business conducted by Bajaj Auto Finance Ltd.
Read more about how family name does not mean leadership positions in the Bajaj Group. Click here
Bajaj Holdings & Investment Limited (BHIL) is an India-based holding and investment company. The Company focuses on earning income through dividends, interest and gains on investments held. The Company’s other equities portfolio is a combination of listed and unlisted investments. BHIL invests in equities based on the Company’s views of returns from public equity markets, as well as opportunities in the private equity space. The Company invests in equities normally with an approximately five year holding horizon or even longer. The Company’s other equities investment portfolio includes financials, technology/pharma; consumers/education; sugar; material/metals/oil and gas; construction/infra, and telecoms and media. Its fixed income portfolio includes government securities, certificate of deposit (CD) and commercial paper (CP), corporate bonds and mutual funds. Its equity investments include strategic/group investments. Bajaj Auto Holdings Ltd. (BAHL) is the Company’s subsidiary.
Anant Agnihotri @mymixedthoughtsblog – The Chart shows the number of days it took to double the cases as of the given date.
Here is a followup article on my previous post of doubling of cases in India along with a new forecast for the next 14 days.
In my previous post about doubling of COVID-19 cases in India I had presented a rather optimistic picture of the situation. Though the situation has not deteriorated 2 weeks later, the situation has not gotten any better, if anything it has gotten slightly worse with respect to the number of cases in India. However, as noted in my previous fatality rate article, you need not worry too much, at least not statistically. However, the fact remains, that COVID-19 is a dangerous virus for the aged and anyone with underline health concerns. And this is an undisputed fact that the 368,944 people who have lost their lives to this infections virus till date, would have been alive today if not for COVID-19. So when you hear people compare the death rate of COVID-19 to that of road accidents, do not let their illogical comparisons influence your understanding of this virus. Road accidents are not infectious for start.
I first published the above table for doubling of cases in India 2 weeks back. At that time I had just started to do my own analysis of the infectious virus COVID-19 in India. I made some predictions at the time and now in the updated table above, in yellow, I have shown the variance of my predictions compared to the actual.
My forecast was pretty on spot for the first 6 days post my analysis, but for the remainder of the 6 days the forecast turned out to be rather off. The reason is pretty obvious to me; the government has started to systemically lift the lock down in India keeping in mind the economy and the lively hood of people.
Whether the government gave in to the critics of the lock down or did their own analysis to take this decision is only known to them. Either ways, results are out and it is clear the number of cases are on the rise. However, with the recent developments, what can we predict for the next 2 weeks?
Next 14 Days Prediction for Doubling of COVID-19 Cases in India
The situation has changed, and therefore I have made some changes in how I forecast the doubling of cases in India for the next 2 weeks. Given the lock down is mostly going to be eased, I will have to now factor in the R Naught of COVID-19 to predict the doubling of cases in India for the next 14 days.
There are 3 theories to consider now –
R Naught (R0) Theory. R Naught indicates how many persons does 1 infected person infect. The WHO R0 for COVID-19 is 2.5. However, instead of taking a R0 of 2.5 only and making one prediction, I need to factor in a few situations. Therefore, I have created a forecast range based on a conservative R Naught and a slightly more aggressive R0. I have taken the conservative R Naught (R0) as 1.8 and the the aggressive R0 as 2.5. I am being conservative and slightly aggressive with this number because while the lock down in India is being lifted, there are still good policies for containment zones and mass gathering. For example, restaurants, malls, movie theaters, concerts, etc will remain closed. At the same time, execution of these policies plays a big role in the actual number.
It takes anywhere between 7-14 days for an infected person to show symptoms of the virus. Instead of taking 7 or 14 days, I am taking the mid value of 10 days for my analysis.
I am making an assumption that the day someone is diagnosed COVID-19 positive, there is no delay (in days) in putting the person in quarantine and hence his individual spread of COVID-19 would fall to zero. Therefore, the New Cases reported daily plays an important role in this prediction as compared to the Total Cases as of that date.
Now that these assumptions and considerations are stated, lets move forward with the two extremes of this forecast range for the next 14 days.
With R Naught of 1.8
Considering the above points, below is the new forecast table for doubling of COVID-19 cases in India. Note, the number of total cases until 17th May 2020 have already doubled as of 31st May 2020. Therefore, the below table starts from 18th May 2020.
Anant Agnihotri @mymixedthoughtsblog – The above table shows number of cases from 18th May through 31st May and provides a forecast for when the cases would double for these respective dates
Looking at the forecast for doubling of cases in India for COVID-19, this Key Performance Indicator of days to double does not seem to deteriorate over the next 14 days under the conservative model with a R Naught of 1.8. The days to double seems to stay at 14 days consistently despite India hitting record high numbers on a daily basis. If you refer the chat trend chart at the top of this article, 14 days is the second best India has hit until now.
With a R-Naught of 1.8, in the next 14 days the total number of COVID-19 cases would jump from ~182,000 to nearly 394,000. This might sound bad, but with the Days of doubling staying at 14, it might just give India’s healthcare system enough bandwidth to absorb the new cases while still able to treat the older patients.
On the flip side, lets say India does not maintain a R Naught of 1.8 due to poor execution of maintaining the lock down. What would the situation be?
With R Naught of 2.5
Here is how the forecast of covid-19 cases looks like over the next 14 days if the new lock down is not able to contain the spread.
Anant Agnihotri @mymixedthoughtsblog – The above table shows number of cases from 18th May through 31st May and provides a forecast for when the cases would double for these respective dates
This slightly aggressive model puts an upper limit to the extent of the spread of COVID-19. Under this model the lowest number of days to double would be 11 days. While the total number of cases at the end of the next 14 days would be around 364,000 as compared to today’s 182,000 total cases.
What worries me a little with this model is the number of new cases per day touching 43,000.
Conclusion
On a conservative side we will see the daily new cases count go up to 22,000 and on the extreme side it might go up to 43,000 new cases. It currently stands at 8,380. As for the doubling of the new cases, I now doubt we are going to cross the 14 day barrier anytime soon.
If you ask me, I would put my money for the next 14 days to look like somewhere between the two extremes called out below. Here is a quick comparison of the two models –
2.5
Vs
1.8
522,000 Total Cases
VS
394,000 Total Cases
43,000 New Cases Daily
VS
22,000 New Cases Daily
11 Days to Double
VS
14 Days to Double
Which side of the above extremes will India be in the next 14 days will come down on the government polices and the ability to execute them. And obviously the government is not the only one playing a role here, the citizens of this country will play a bigger role by being sensible in their choices. After all, it is now all about “Atmanirbhar“! I personally feel it has always been about Atmanirbhar; meaning self dependent.
Is Days to Double The Correct KPI In The Future
In short, No.
Days to Double would probably become redundant as a Key Performance Indicator once the Total number of cases cross a certain threshold.
As the total number of cases increase dramatically and the number of recoveries from COVID-19 increase, Days to Double would naturally start to increase dramatically and break the current 14 day barrier. At that point, the Days to Double would not be a good indicator of initiatives undertaken by India to control the spread of this virus. This event will also mark the beginning of the benefits gained from Herd Immunity.
With over 1.7 Million cases, we can already see this happening in the USA. In the below chart you can very clearly see the sharp correlation days to double has with the Total number of cases in the USA. Today, the Days to Double in the USA stands at a little less than 80 days as compared to nearly 10 Days at the end of March.
Anant Agnihotri @mymixedthoughtsblog Days to double and total number of cases in the USA. The purpose of the chart is to show that as the total number of cases goes up, naturally so does the days to double.
Note – you can download my analysis excel file by clicking on “add to cart”. Obviously, it is free but it will require you to register with the blog.
Raw data – Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) – “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus’ [Online Resource]
Blacklist is an American crime thriller that premiered on NBC on September 23, 2013. Fortunately, that is not when I started watching the series! I got to season 1 only in April 2020, and I got so hooked that I was able to complete all 7 seasons in 90 days! I tell you, this one is one of those series that had me captivated for 80% of the time! Yes, only 80% and not 100%, which is why it is not THE BEST series review for me yet! I keep that special place for Breaking Bad!
Blacklist Story Line (No Spoilers)
I promise I am not going to give any spoilers! So this section is totally safe if you have not seen Blacklist yet! I will however talk about the basics, stuff that you will anyways get to know in episode 1.
The show follows Raymond Reddington (James Spader), a former U.S. Navy officer turned high-profile criminal. And in the very first episode, this high-profile criminal, voluntarily surrenders to the FBI after eluding capture for decades. After his dramatic surrender, he goes on to tell the FBI that has has a list, get it? Blacklist!, of criminals that the FBI does not even know about. What’s even better, these are not your ordinary criminals and are all the big fish criminals who are plot at an international level and influence the world economies! Oh boy! If you are a conspiracy theorist, this series should be a mental masturbation for you!
Of course the FBI is not going to believe Raymond Reddington so easily, and of-course Raymond knew that. So he gives the FBI a case they just cannot resist! Long story short, Raymond ends up with an immunity deal with the government and becomes their top secret informant. He continues his vast criminal empire while the FBI Special Task force becomes his personal squad! Pretty smart and ballzi if you ask me!
Oh, how can I forget about Elizabeth Keen (Megan Boone)! The twist is, Raymond Reddington will only talk to Elizabeth Keen from the FBI and no one else. And that is because…… I just remembered no spoilers. Keeping shush now!
What I like about Blacklist
For me Blacklist stands right up their along with Breaking Bad and Money Heist. It is one of those series that kept giving my curiosity enough things to think about and also sometimes try and predict the entire plot, and sometimes I thought I did crack it, but no, it turned out to be something else altogether. Darn!
The real cherry on the cake is James Spader who played Raymond Reddington. He took on the role with such swag that most of the entertainment of Blacklist comes from his acting. The character is so captivating that you would just want to watch what he does next! Additionally, the story line is the kind I like. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I do like a good imagination boost!
What Could Have Been Better
This is not the kind of series that gives you a well researched criminal plot or something that can be thought to be real, so it would not be fare to compare Blacklist to one of those intricate criminal plot series such as Sherlock Homes. If I had to change something about the series, it probably would be getting to the point a little quick! But then again, this series is the kind that tells you a story that started decades back, and whats a good story if their is no build up.
If I were able to change something, it would be somewhere in Season 3. There were definitely a few episodes that felt like a drag and I really had to push through those episode to get to the main plot! Though in Blacklist story line’s defense, all the cases Raymond Reddington gave the FBI has a reason, but its not until a few episodes later that they connect it all together. So, to keep the viewers a little more captivated, maybe try and give that hint of connection a little earlier! But I tell you one thing, when the main plot picks up, it is realy hard to stop the Netflix auto play!
Anant Agnihotri @mymixedthoughtsblog – The Chart shows the number of days it took to double the cases as of the given date.
The good news is, the lock down is having a positive impact on the spread of the infectious virus, COVID-19. How do we know that? The chart above shows that at the beginning of April the Doubling of COVID-19 positive cases was approximately at 3-4 days. However, the current doubling of cases stands at 12 days. India saw this increase in doubling rate within 30 days. Given the lock down went into effect on 25th March 2020, just before April, we can easily draw a correlation between the lock down and the doubling rate.
To better understand why this increase from 3-4 days to 12 days is a good thing, we must first understand that COVID-19 is an Infectious Disease and that means it can spread. To measure the spread, there is a metrics called “R-Naught (R0)”. Currently, the R-Naught of COVID-19 is about 2.5. That means, for every 1 positive case, chances are that another 2.5 people would catch the virus.
With a R-Naught of 2.5, the number of cases can reach 10,000 within the first 14 days of the first positive case. What would the number of cases be 14 days later? A whopping 16 Crore (160 Million) positive cases. That 10,000 positive cases in 14 days becomes approximately 16,000 times. To put things into perspective, the population of Mumbai is 1.6 Crore (2011). So, an infectious disease with a R-Naught of 2.5 has the potential of infecting 10 Mumbai sized cities within 28 days. With this understanding, it should be clear why putting in place measures in the first 14 days is so important for stopping or delaying the spread.
A positive outlook for doubling of COVID-19 cases in India
The number of COVID-19 positive cases have doubled until 4th of May. 12 days later, 16th May (today), the number of cases have not yet doubled. This pretty much puts us on track for the next 1-2 days to continue maintaining or improving the doubling rate. However, given things remain the way they are today, are we on track to further improve our doubling rate over the next 12 days?
Looking at the Total number of cases for each day since May 4th and considering the average number of new cases for the same time period, we can do a simple analysis to predict if we are on track to further improve this number.
@mymixedthoughtsblog forecasting the doubling dates assuming the number of new positive COVID-19 cases will be maintained at 3,500 bases previous 12 day new cases
Since May 5th, the average number of new COVID-19 positive cases has been a little above 3,500 cases. Assuming we keep the same average, we could see the doubling of cases go up to at least 25 days by mid June.
To be noted, extending the same kind of lock down that we have had for the past 1 and a half month seems rather unlikely. An extended lock down would only cause more harm to the Indian economy and hence to the Indian people. The government has already began to slowly relax the lock down. With the recent opening of Liquor shops and the announcement of Orange, Green and Red zones, it would be interesting to see how this pandemic spans out over the next 4 weeks. I for certain am going to download this data and again and revise my COVID-19 analysis for India.
Note – you can download my analysis file by clicking on “add to cart”. Obviously, it is free but it will require you to register with the blog.
Raw data – Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) – “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus’ [Online Resource]
For those of you who do not know the definition of Dahej, also known as Dowry, it is the amount of money given by the Bride’s family to her to be husband before their marriage. Dahej is the amount of money paid only by the bride’s family and not the husband’s family.
Despite living in the 21st century, and this act being illegal, in certain social situations this maybe an unavoidable topic. And lets be honest, many families may still go ahead with this act rather than breaking it off. I fail to see why. Therefore, the purpose of this article is to give the Bride’s family another perspective towards this situation; and hopefully that will help a bold bride raise a very reasonable and logical question as to why Dowry / Dahej is just illogical. Irrespective of its legal state, it should not be followed.
If Dahej or Dowry is to be continued despite it being illegal, lets give it the 21st century upgrade? Shall we? Ladies, this is power to you since you are the ones who are the “Investors”. Take yourself out of the “oh I owe this person money” and move towards “hmm, is this an attractive investment? Can I get better returns for the same amount of money elsewhere” perspective.
The first obvious question that arises is who determines this value. Well, just like in equity trading, its you! I mean, you are the one who needs to pay. So if you say no or start to negotiate, then the price would change.
Now that this perspective is set, lets carry on with this humorous article. Should we?
Whats is the 21st Century Twist to Dowry / Dahej?
Whenever someone spends money, there are usually only two reasons, either the money spent has to result in a certain amount of utility, or the money spent has to generate an acceptable amount of return on top of the principle amount.
Within economics, the concept of utility is used to model worth or value. So, do you have a utility score for your to be husband? If not, make sure you take into account everything that matters the most to you and put a utility score for this investment. If the score is not good, need I say anything?
If you are investing for better returns, then do you know if your current investment has the potential to give you the desired return on investment? You might need to tweak the formula a little to calculate this better for this situation, but the idea is for you to have a personal 10-15 year goal and see how does this investment help achieve that goal. I mean, marriage is a long term investment, right?
Something I joke to myself in this situation, you should also ask yourself what is the multiplier value of your investment. You ask what that is? Well, lets say the current value is Rs 100 and you are paying Rs 1,000. That makes the multiplier to be 10 times. Its simple, Amount to be paid / Current Value. If the multiplier is too high, you need to reason with yourself if the investment is too risky.
hey, if all this works out and you do get married and find yourself 20 years later, this can be a humorous topic of discussion with your husband about how you evaluated his at the time worth and what still made you say, yes!
Another possible twist to your situation after doing this exercise, you might realize that his family is the one who should be paying you for your future services since the opposite is just not worth the monetary value.
And that is the 21st Century twist to this age old tradition; the bride being paid the dowry amount because the other way-round just does not justify the investment.
Now obviously this is a humorous approach to a practice that should not be practiced any more, but if you do find your self in that situation, this should be a good discussion point with the to be husband family.
The guys who are reading this and intend to ask for Dowry or Dahej, you better hope your girl has not read this article and comprehended well enough. Peace!
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