The number of cases in India has been going up since the end of March. On 5th April, 11 days post India Lock Down, the number of cases was 3,374 and now, a little over a month, the number of cases is 18 times that, 62,939.
From the analysis that I have been doing, the good news is that the Case Fatality Rate is not increasing at a faster proportion than the number of new cases on a daily basis. You can clearly see that in the chart above.
Throughout the month of April, The Case Fatality Rate for COVID-19 has been consistently staying at about 3.5% and it seems to continue staying there even in the beginning of May.
A positive conclusion from this is that while their is a constant increase in the number of deaths due to COVID-19 in the country; it is not directly proportional to the increasing number of new cases in India. This is good news!
Comparing India COVID-19 Fatality Rate to Global Rate
To be noted, the Global Fatality Rate as of today is just below 7.00%. India has been maintaining a Fatality Rate half of that for over a month and a half now.
There can be numorous factors to this, and since I am not an expert I am not going to write anything about it! But hey, researchers are understanding this virus better and I am sure we will hear something soon.
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Citation –
Analysis – Done by Anant Agnihotri, published on https://mymixedthoughtsblog.com/case-fatality-rate-covid-19/
Raw data – Max Roser, Hannah Ritchie, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Joe Hasell (2020) – “Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19)”. Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: ‘https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus’ [Online Resource]
-Anant Agnihotri
That’s interesting!
I read that the mortality rate is high in India and could have been lower if tests done were more. I think this too brings me to your other post about more testing.
That is the problem with percentages. There are media channels that are reporting the % increase in the number of deaths on a daily or weekly basis. Some have also calculated a moving average of this data point and made conclusions. While that is one way to look at the situation, I feel it is only the partial story and not enough to make conclusions. One of the reasons why I started doing my own analysis and creating the views I wanted to look at.
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